Understanding Weather – not predicting – 02 August 2013

What happened?
The probability of a cold intrusion was fully met as the flow behind a cold front swept, perhaps obliquely, across much of Namibia. The oblique feature saw the brunt of the inflow swirling in from the southeast rather than the southwest or even south. This departure from our expected source meant that the harshest impact was limited both in duration and temperature. Still the cold gave some overnight frost coupled with limited daytime temperatures for the central and southern upland interior (meaning maxima below the 20oC mark). Temperatures in the south struggled to reach 15oC for the two key days marking this episode.