The ruling Swapo Party is at a crossroads, with its 2022 interparty elective congress being the ultimate defining moment for the former liberation movement.
Swapo can either regroup, rebuild and return to its former glory days or continue limping further into deterioration, depression, decay before disappearing into thin political air.
This analysis is deduced from pundits and political experts interviewed this past week on what this year means to Swapo’s survival.
At present, Swapo finds itself in a tricky position. On one hand, the Fishrot corruption scandal in which key politicians and business figures are implicated is on full display. The reputational damage it continues to cost the party has widely been accepted.
On the other hand is the hangover and dust from the 2017 watershed congress which birthed two factions. Team Swapo and Team Harambee have refused to die, despite Team Swapo being largely pushed to the periphery of decision making.
Nampa also spoke to some veterans of the movement, who spent most of their lives working to build the Swapo project, pre and post-independence.
“It [congress] is going to be a make or break if it is not handled in a manner that brings people together,” Ndumba Kamwanyah, a local analyst says.
Political commentator, Natjirikasorua Tjirera said the clichéd word ‘crossroads’ perfectly fits the Swapo situation.
“Swapo is at a crossroads as a political movement. Swapo must do an introspection, even before the congress to decide what it wants to do and how it wants to do that. And only then can they look for a person who does what has to be done to achieve previous glories,” Tjirera said.
Tjirera said Swapo’s fate is in the hands of those leading it.
“It’s up to them to significantly try and shape the party to make it appealable to the greater community, especially the young people and elderly voters…if they don’t get it right, they are destined for a very tough fight in 2024 because they are going in the wrong direction while the opposition is going in the right one,” Tjirera noted.
He continued: “Swapo’s arrogance, because of the numbers they had, has worked against them. The perception that those in power have been stealing resources with impunity does not augur well with them.”
CATCH-22
What puts Swapo under more pressure is the fact that its wings – Swapo Party Youth League (SPYL), Swapo Elders Council and Swapo Women’s Council – are yet to hold their respective congresses.
Coupled with this are the regional conferences that should take place before the main congress.
The situation, Kamwanyah says, is breeding ground for “perfect chaos”.
“This means these congresses are taking place in the same year which increases the tensions and divisions ahead of the congress. They have to rethink the approach and organise it in a manner that is inclusive of different views and ideas,” he cautioned.
However, a party insider confirmed that all logistics are in place to ensure the respective wing and regional conferences are executed smoothly.
“We are prepared and have a lot of events as we have a lot of events lined up including the three congresses of the wings,” the source said.
The fiercely contested district conferences will take place between April and July, while the wing congresses take place between July and September.
By then, the multi-million dollar state-of-the-art Swapo national headquarters is expected to host about 750 delegates to decide the party’s fate for the next five years.
GUARDED DEMOCRACY
President Geingob has elected to play his cards close to the chest.
In recent months, he has come under pressure to declare Swapo’s second in command, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as his preferred candidate, as per the norm in Swapo.
This is known as ‘guarded democracy’, a succession plan in Swapo.
Unlike his predecessors, Geingob will not anoint a successor.
In August last year, Geingob told New Era that the era of guided democracy and prospective candidates will have to battle it out this time around without his blessing.
“There is no guided democracy anymore. That is the new normal. One man, one woman, one vote. I went through that. I can’t choose anybody [Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah] to say you are the vice president, that is automatic,” he said.
Analysts opined that Geingob’s move is commendable.
“It is the right approach for him not to anoint anyone for the simple reason that the party is so divided, so anointing somebody might drive the party into deeper division,” Kamwanyah said.
According to the analyst, ditching the guided democracy doctrine will benefit Swapo in the long run.
“Guided democracy in itself is problematic. It is because of the guided democracy that Swapo finds itself divided, starting from [Sam] Nujoma’s time which led to the breakaway of Hidipo [Hamutenya] and his RDP and then Team Swapo vs Team Harambee. That is the result of guide democracy,” he added.
Because Swapo is tainted and weakened, with some of this being squarely put on Geingob, moving away from the principle of choosing a successor works in mending broken ties, he said.
“In this day and age, Geingob should leave it in the hands of the members. It will serve him well and will at least bring the party together. Let the playing field be open for the people to elect who they want. He [Geingob] can vote for the candidate of his choice, just like any other delegate,” the political scholar advanced.
ROAD TO CONGRESS
The road to the Swapo elective congress is taking shape, with various factions positioning themselves for takeover, but some Swapo veterans have reservations.
“Is Swapo ready to hold a meaningful congress? This is just a laissez-faire exercise. It is just a routine thing,” Swapo veteran and former CC member Nahas Angula posited.
Angula also questioned the commitment of those at the helm of the former liberation movement.
“People are committed to their stomachs and not to the party…we cannot rescue Swapo if we don’t go back to its historical mission and vision,” he charged.
Having attended several elective congresses, in Swapo, Angula has come full circle.
He now speaks from the other side of the fence – saying Swapo has gone from gravitas to greed.
“Earlier congresses were driven by ideals of serving our people and not stomachs. Now those ideals have disappeared.”
IRON LADY
Unlike Angula, Swapo stalwart Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana said: “I want to give them the benefit of the doubt.”
Dubbed the ‘Iron lady’ for her no-nonsense leadership style as Swapo SG between 2007 and 2012, Iivula-Ithana is however sceptical on whether Swapo can wake up from its perceived slumber.
“I don’t know…I am not quite sure about the vibrancy of the people [leaders] at this particular moment to feel the need to pump a new spirit within the body called Swapo and its members,” she said.
She continued, saying those who ended up in critical positions ascended not on the basis of merit.
“If they see things going wrong, they rather keep quiet for the sake of peace or go along. And these are the people we put in place as leaders. Now if you ask questions about seriousness and preparedness [for congress], unless these people have become different from what I have described,” she said.
She added: “As long as those who are there continue to be there, I don’t know [how Swapo can be rescued].”
NANDI-NDAITWAH MUM
Contacted for comment on Swapo’s readiness for congress, Nandi-Ndaitwah’s phone went unanswered.
She however replied: “Preparation for the Swapo Party congress is an administrative matter. Can you please contact the office of the SG.”
Efforts to get hold of Sophia Shaningwa, the secretary general, were fruitless.
Queries directed to Swapo executive director Austin Swapo yielded little results.
Samupwa said the party will hold a press conference this week, where all matters regarding congress will be addressed.
Source: The Namibian Press Agency
