Kinshasa: Confirmed Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have exceeded 5,200, but Africa's leading public health agency cautioned that the official figures might represent only 30 to 40 percent of the actual infections, implying that the outbreak could be up to three times larger than reported.
According to Namibia Press Agency, the warning surfaced as the DRC government initiated an emergency plan to enhance surveillance along the Congo River, aiming to prevent the virus from spreading through one of Central Africa's key transport corridors towards major cities, including the capital, Kinshasa.
The latest data from the DRC's health authorities reveal that, as of August 18, there were 5,208 confirmed cases, including 2,476 fatalities, across six provinces, with a case fatality rate of 47.5 percent. Additionally, 1,115 patients have recovered.
The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) stated that modeling efforts in collaboration with the DRC's National Institute of Biomedical Research and other partners suggested the actual burden was significantly higher than the confirmed figures indicated. "We are detecting just 30 to 40 percent," said Kyeng Mercy, an Africa CDC official, during an online press briefing. "If you have to look at the real burden, we should be over 10,000 to 15,000 cases."
Yap Boum II, head of emergency preparedness and response at Africa CDC, explained that the outbreak could be three times the current size in terms of confirmed cases. He noted that fewer than 10 percent of detected cases were among known contacts, and less than 40 percent had an epidemiological link to another confirmed infection.
Jean Kaseya, director-general of Africa CDC, expressed concern that the epidemic "is not under control," warning that without significant changes in response, the outbreak might exceed the scale of the 2014-2016 West Africa epidemic. Evidence suggests transmission may have begun around February, months before the outbreak was officially declared in May, potentially adding to the current official tally.
In response, the DRC government launched the "Congo River Without Ebola" initiative to prevent the country's main river transport artery from becoming a route for the virus to spread. The plan focuses on preventing transmission towards major riverside population centers and reducing cross-border spread risks.
The initiative, supported by an inter-agency mechanism involving the WHO and other UN agencies, includes reinforced screening, surveillance at ports, community early-warning networks, expanded isolation and treatment capacity, and preparations for possible vessel quarantine.
Meanwhile, health authorities are shifting towards a "village-centered response," involving village chiefs and community health workers in house-to-house searches and linking families with health facilities. Vaccination efforts are also underway, with an initial 70,000 doses of the Ervebo vaccine being allocated to the DRC for research and among frontline and at-risk populations.
Kaseya emphasized the need for a change in the current trajectory, expressing hope that the new measures will help stop the outbreak.