Windhoek: The Namibia Meteorological Service has warned that Namibia will experience a drier-than-normal and hotter-than-normal 2026/27 rainfall season as El Ni±o conditions rapidly intensify over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Chief of Climate and Data Bank, Simon Dirkse, stated that sea surface temperature anomalies reached 0.5°C between April and June 2026, marking the onset of an active El Ni±o phase.

According to Namibia Press Agency, the anomalies increased to 1.0°C between May and July, indicating a weak El Ni±o, before rising rapidly to 1.8°C by the second week of August. Major global climate prediction centres unanimously expect the El Ni±o event to strengthen further in the coming months, potentially exceeding 3.0°C and reaching what it described as 'very strong' status.

The Namibia Meteorological Service noted that historical data and its internal studies show that El Ni±o events consistently suppress rainfall across Namibia, while La Ni±a events tend to enhance rainfall. Downscaled regional climate models for October 2026 to March 2027 indicate a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures combined with below-average rainfall across the country, the weather bureau indicated.

The service highlighted that the current El Ni±o event closely resembles the 2023/24 season, which it identified as a useful benchmark for disaster preparedness, agricultural planning, and resource management. It will continue monitoring atmospheric conditions and issue updated monthly seasonal bulletins.

The public, sector leaders, and other stakeholders have been urged to follow short-term and weekly weather forecasts to support adaptive planning.