Good Rains Predicted for Namibia

SOUTHERN African climate experts expect Namibia to experience a normal to above-normal rainy season from next month to March next year.

The current seasonal forecast of regional climate experts is that the approaching rainy season would be normal to wetter than normal in Namibia, and also in most of the countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) announced in Windhoek on Friday.

The seasonal forecast, which is planned to be updated once the rainy season starts in October and as it progresses, was released at the end of a Sarcof meeting in Windhoek.

With the rainy season divided into overlapping three-month periods for the purposes of the forecast, regional meteorologists foresee that most of Namibia – with the exception of the area along the country’s coast – will have a 35 percent probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40% chance of normal rainfall, and a 25% chance of below-normal rainfall over the three months from October to December.

Over the area along Namibia’s coast, the probability of receiving an above-normal quantity of rain from October to December is 40%, while the chance for a normal amount of rainfall over that area is 35% and the chance for below-normal rainfall is 25%.

Over the three-month periods from November to January and also from December to February, the forecast is that all of Namibia will have a 35% probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40% chance of normal rainfall, and a 25% chance of below-normal rainfall.

From January to March, it is expected that the areas along the coastline and roughly the western half of the Karas Region will have a 40% chance of above-normal rainfall, 35% probability of normal rainfall, and a 25% chance of below-normal rainfall.

Over the rest of the country, the forecast is again a 35% probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40% chance of normal rainfall, and a 25% chance of below-normal rainfall from January to March.

Ocean surface temperatures were one of the factors taken into account by the climate scientists who compiled the seasonal forecast, SADC Climate Services Centre coordinator Bradwell Garanganga said on Friday. He said the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are near neutral at the moment, after these temperatures had appeared to be rising a few months ago.

If the ocean surface temperatures in that part of the Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels, an El Nintildeo event occurs, with global weather patterns affected as a result.

In southern Africa, El Nintildeo usually signifies drought or a below-normal rainy season.

Source : The Namibian

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