Berlin: Germany is set to hold its federal election on Sunday, following the collapse of the "traffic light coalition," a coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The snap election will determine the composition of the new Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, and, ultimately, the next chancellor.
According to Namibia Press Agency, four major parties are vying for voter support in the upcoming election: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), Scholz's SPD, the Greens, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The CDU and CSU union are focusing on immigration, with their chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz highlighting public concerns over illegal immigration. The union also supports maintaining Germany's fiscal rule of debt brake, tax cuts, increased support for Ukraine, and boosting defense spending. The SPD is emphasizing tax relief, stricter border controls, and infrastructure investments, while the Greens align with the SPD on reforming the debt brake and supporting subsidies for electric vehicles. The AfD is taking a hardline stance on immigration and is advocating for tax reductions and an end to sanctions against Russia.
A recent poll by the Forsa Institute shows the CDU and CSU union leading with 29 percent support, followed by the AfD with 21 percent, the SPD with 15 percent, and the Greens trailing with 13 percent. The poll indicates that the CDU and CSU union have the strongest chance of winning the election.
Germany's electoral system combines direct and proportional representation. Voters cast two ballots: one for a local constituency representative and another for a political party, which determines the proportional distribution of seats in the Bundestag. The Bundestag, with 630 seats, consists of 299 directly elected members and 331 proportionally allocated based on party votes. After the election, coalitions are often formed to ensure a governing majority.
Post-election, the Bundestag must convene within 30 days to elect a new chancellor, as stipulated by the Basic Law, the German constitution. Traditionally, the candidate from the party with the most votes is nominated as the federal chancellor. If the candidate wins with an absolute majority, the president appoints them within seven days. Failing this after three rounds, the president may either appoint the candidate or dissolve the Bundestag, leading to new elections within 60 days. The outgoing government remains in office until the new government is formed.
Current polling suggests the CDU and CSU union is expected to lead, which implies that if it forms a coalition government, its chancellor candidate, Merz, may become Germany's next federal chancellor. Given Merz's refusal to cooperate with the AfD, the union is likely to form a coalition with either the SPD or the Greens. However, a coalition with the SPD may be strained due to policy disagreements, and a coalition with the Greens risks internal conflicts, potentially leading to collapse similar to the "traffic light coalition."
Experts suggest Merz's emphasis on tightening immigration policies and courting far-right parties has disrupted the traditional cooperation among Germany's mainstream parties, making it challenging to form a stable government.